Shawn Vermette

Nintendo’s Media Summit this week gave us ample rumor fodder for this week’s Speculator. Since that’s what we’re all talking about this week, here is an all-Nintendo edition.

Current scores:

Andrew Passafiume: 5 

Graham Russell: 5

Shawn Vermette: 40

New Legend of Zelda to come out in U.S. in 2010

According to remarks from Satoru Iwata and Cammie Dunaway, there’s a chance that the next Zelda will hit shelves this fall. Combine those off-the-cuff remarks with the fact that Nintendo just cleared out their entire inventory of big upcoming games, and this becomes a much more interesting rumor. Right now, Nintendo has no big projects announced for release after June. Could Zelda be the big one that props up their holiday lineup?

Andrew: This is a definite possibility, especially considering Nintendo’s biggest titles are all coming out before the second half of the year. Mario Galaxy 2 and Metroid: Other M both coming out in Q2? That is the biggest surprise of all. I think Nintendo needs a big title to launch for the Holidays, and Zelda seems like the best candidate. 90%

Graham: With clearing the fall of Galaxy 2 and Other M, they’ll have to announce some big stuff at E3. Zelda’s the only big title they’ve announced. My hesitation: they say it’s not ready, and they can be patient with Zelda. There’s always a chance of a New Super Mario Bros.-like announcement of a quick, surprising release.  80%

Shawn: I fully expect to see a new Zelda this year, probably during the holidays. It’s been 4 years since Twilight Princess came out, and most Zelda games have come out in roughly 4 year increments. That and the complete lack of anything resembling a holiday blockbuster on their current slate of games tells me they were clearing the way for a big announcement at E3. 85%

Nintendo to announce U.S. release of The Last Story at E3

Nintendo and Mistwalker, the studio behind Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey, are at work on a new RPG project . Unfortunately, little is known about it beyond the fact that it is scheduled to come out in 2010 in Japan and is the only project being worked on by Hironobu Sakaguchi, the famed creator of Final Fantasy. Dunaway was evasive when asked about localization of the game.

Andrew: I think this has a higher chance of happening than one may think. The game is apparently almost finished, despite us seeing next to nothing on it. It probably would not take terribly long to localize it for Western audiences, so I would definitely expect to hear about it at E3. Whether or not we’ll actually get it this year is an entirely different story, but still a possibility. 80%

Graham: With the deck-clearing of the Summit, I think there will be some announcing of games that won’t be out by the end of the year. This seems to be one of those announcements, as the localization may take a while. This one is higher-profile, but also not as far along in the development process, so it’s a toss-up. 75%

Shawn: I don’t know how likely this is, but I really, really hope it happens. I loved Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey, and am really looking forward to this next RPG from them. However, their last game was never localized, so I’m left with hope versus history on this rumor. 60%


Nintendo to announce U.S. release of Xenoblade at E3

Similar to the above rumor, Xenoblade is the newest project from Monolith Soft, creators of Xenosaga. It was shown last year at E3 as Monado, but currently is only set for release in Japan. However, Cammie Dunaway also referred to it during the Nintendo Media Summit this week. Dunaway also tried to sidestep questioning about this one, but they’ve shown it before, so is it more likely?

Andrew: That’s the point, why mention it if it isn’t going to be localized? I feel the same exact way about this as I do about The Last Story. It’s fairly obvious we’ll hear about a U.S. release this E3, but once again, who knows when we’ll actually get it. 80% 


Graham: Since there was an announcement last year (albeit a small one with no demo space), this one’s a bit more likely. Still not convinced the release will be quick, but if we get one of these in 2010, we won’t get the other, as they both hit the same demographic. 80%


Shawn: RPGs are always something I’m interested in, so yet again I’m hoping for something to happen that I’m not sure will happen. I can’t think of any reason to mention a game in the US if you don’t plan on localizing it…but Nintendo has done it before (Mother 3 is one example). 65%

 

For over four years, gamers have been playing ‘just one more turn’ into the wee hours of the night in Civilization IV. Now they know when the much anticipated sequel will be released. Firaxis Games announced today that Civilization V will be released this fall for the PC.

Not much information was released regarding it but what we do know is listed after the break. READ MORE

This week we’re predicting release dates and pondering the closure of the studio that brought us Guitar Hero.

Current Scores:

Andrew Passafiume: 5

Graham Russell: 5

Shawn Vermette: 40

Gran Turismo 5 delayed until fall

Polyphony’s best selling racing sim has met with delay after delay in its slow plod towards a release. Last year Sony finally gave it a release window of Spring 2010, hoping to rely on it to give the PS3 a much needed exclusive to combat the release of Conviction and Alan Wake on the 360. However, rumor has it that it will be delayed yet again and will finally be released this fall.

Andrew: This wouldn’t surprise me much at all. The game has been delayed so many times at this point, and with Sony wanting to spread all of its big first party titles around, I can see it happening. God of War III is the big exclusive for the spring, so Gran Turismo 5 could be one of the big exclusives, if not the big exclusive for the fall. 95%

Graham: I think that Duke Nukem Forever has tainted our judgment a bit on things like this. It’s completely possible that it’ll meet its target…oh, who am I kidding. There’s no firm date yet, so there’s no way such a big title will be hastily scheduled for May or something.  Yeah, it’s slipping, and Sony will have to crack the whip to get it out before winter. 64%

Shawn: I didn’t see much realism in the whole Spring 2010 launch period to begin with. On the other hand, I’m not convinced that this project that has so far failed to ever touch a production milestone will actually come out this year at all. Since this rumor also posits it coming out this year, I’m going to have to lower my prediction certainty a bit. 65%


Halo: Reach to be released September 21, 2010

Sure, it might be a stretch to speculate on a specific date for Halo: Reach right now, when the beta hasn’t even been released yet. However, Halo 3 was released September 25, 2007 and its beta started on May 16. The Halo: Reach beta is starting during the same short time frame, on May 3. Thanks to this and the magic of comparing release schedules, Halo 3: ODST was released September 22, 2009, a release date of September 21, 2010 is not out of the question for Halo: Reach. The question is, are we right or not?

Andrew: I definitely see this happening. ODST sold incredibly well in September with not much competition, so why not release Reach around the same time the following year? But I do consider the fact that ODST did fewer units than Halo 3 did two years prior. Whether that is due to the release date or the fact that ODST was not a fully fledged Halo title is not really certain, so Bungie could try a different launch period.  90%

Graham: So we’re just pulling dates out of the air now? It could be the week after, the week before…heck, they could launch it on a Sunday or something. And you guys are so incredibly certain that it’s the one date, so if it’s any day at all but that one I’ll pull out ahead with such a lead that it’s not even funny? Well that certainly makes my decision easy. 1%

Shawn: Microsoft seems in love with the whole September release date for Halo, having launched Halo 3 and Halo: ODST during that month. Due to that fact, and the fact that games are always released on a Tuesday, there’s a very limited number of possibilities. Therefore I shall go out on a limb and say it is an absolute certainty. 100%


RedOctane closed by Activision

Despite posting a profit for last year, Activision has recently announced layoffs at a number of studios and closed one. Rumor has it though that Activision is closing another studio, RedOctane, founding studio of Guitar Hero. Activision bought RedOctane for $100 million a few years ago and quickly reaped a tenfold profit off of them, announcing a year later they’d made $1 billion in revenues on Guitar Hero. However, the rhythm genre has fallen of rough times during the past year and it sounds as if RedOctane will now be feeling the squeeze as well. Would Activision really close a studio that has been so profitable for them simply because of one down year?

Andrew: I doubt this, I really do. I know they have laid off some people at Radical and Neversoft, but I don’t think they would close an entire studio because of it. RedOctane continues to make profits for Activision based on the peripherals they design and the Guitar Hero license in general, even if the music game industry hasn’t been as successful in 2009 as it has been in prior years. 10%

Graham: I think the key here is that RedOctane is now and has always been a publisher. Sure, they make a few accessories, but they don’t develop games, so they’re pretty much duplicating Activision’s efforts. Closing RedOctane as a separate studio isn’t a sign that they didn’t like their performance, as they can move key personnel into Activision Blizzard’s HQ. Yes, this is happening. Honestly, I’m surprised it didn’t happen sooner. 97%

Shawn:  Unlike Andrew, I find this to be fairly credible. The last few Guitar Hero games did not come from RedOctane, so Activision obviously doesn’t need them in order to produce the actual games. Additionally, rhythm games fell very hard last year. Whether that was a result of market oversaturation or the end of the rhythm game era is yet to be seen, but Activision is playing it safe by only releasing one Guitar Hero game this year. Market conditions and a payroll that is likely pretty high both contribute, I feel, to making this a true rumor. 80%

I was excited to get my hands on the Command & Conquer 4 beta because I’ve loved playing the series for over a decade. At the same time though, I was worried about how well EA would be able to balance the game between the NOD and GDI sides of the game. READ MORE

Ever since the announcement of Halo: Reach at E3 last year, gamers have been anxiously awaiting notice of when its open beta would begin. Well, the wait is over because today Microsoft announced the start date for the Halo: Reach beta.

On May 3rd, gamers who have a copy of Halo 3: ODST will be able to access the beta through the ODST disc, similar to how Crackdown owners were able to access the Halo 3 beta through the Crackdown disc.  READ MORE