NPD Analysis - February 2008

The February NPD numbers have been released, so as usual every gaming website is talking about just what they actually mean. I would like to thank Snackbar Games for giving me the opportunity to write my analysis for them.

First, it's worth considering what these numbers actually represent. NPD uses a retail calendar instead of the traditional one, which means that the "month" of February is actually the four-week period that began on Sunday, February 3rd and ended Saturday, March 1st. Also, since four of the twelve months are five weeks instead of four, it's useful to look at weekly averages and not just total sales. This makes it easier to compare months without being misled by the differing lengths.

Also, for comparison purposes, it's worth reviewing both the January 2008 (last month) and February 2007 (last year) results in order to see any changes in market position or trends which may be appearing. The January 2008 numbers were as follows, starting with the best-selling system and working down, with monthly numbers stated first followed by the weekly averages in parenthesis:

Wii: 274,000 (68,500)
PS3: 269,000 (67,250)
PS2: 264,000 (66,000)
DS: 251,000 (62,750)
360: 230,000 (57,500)
PSP 230,000 (57,500)

For February 2007, using the same formatting and removing the GameBoy Advance, GameCube, and Xbox (which are no longer tracked), the numbers were:

DS: 485,149 (121, 287)
Wii: 335,324 (83,831)
PS2: 295,102 (73,776)
360: 228,225 (57,056)
PSP: 175,651 (43,913)
PS3: 127,321 (31,830)

So with that preliminary information covered, we can now look at the February numbers in their full context. So let's get started. The first thing I'll point out is that all six consoles showed both a month-over-month and year-over-year sales increase, although some were greater than others. Again I‘ll start with the best-selling system and work my way down from there.

DS: 587,600 (146,900) This is yet another stellar month for a console that has had nothing but since June of 2006 (January 07 and 08 supply issues notwithstanding). There were no major software releases, and yet the system managed to push out well over half a million units for the month and nearly 150,000 per week. It's already the best-selling system in Japanese history, but as sales have slowed there, Nintendo has been rerouting additional systems to the US. Like the PS2 (more on this below) there's no one title that is driving hardware sales, but rather an incredibly diverse library of excellent games. The result has the DS on track to be the best-selling console in history. Nintendo killing the GameBoy and starting over from scratch on handheld design and function will go down as one of their smartest decisions ever.

Wii: 432,000 (108,000) The Wii may have been outsold by its older sibling, but clearing 400,000 in a month that saw no major software releases is still impressive. And 16 months after launch it still remains almost entirely supply limited, despite having shipped more systems in less time than any console in history. The increased production from last year is obvious when looking at year-over-year sales, with the Wii selling nearly 100,000 more compared to last year. There's nary a chink to be found in the Wii's armor, and these hardware sales are not going to add any. If the DS was one of Nintendo's smartest moves ever, then bailing out on the traditional console market and going for a system that broke every market convention there was is probably the smartest.

PS2: 351,800 (87,950) It's easy to get accustomed to seeing the PS2 continue to sell well month after month, but moving over 350,000 at this point in its life deserves particular notice. Despite being over seven years old, the best-selling console in history, and having its successor released well over a year ago, the PS2 somehow improved on its performance from last year, continued to outsell that successor, and is still selling at a rate that would be impressive for a current system. With thousands of games available and an impulse-buy price point, there's simply no risk in buying a PS2 even with the newer consoles out. The DS and Wii may be the new, trendy systems on the market, but the PS2 remains the benchmark by which any other console is judged.

PS3: 280,800 (70,200) For the second consecutive month the PS3 outsold the 360. This is not surprising, given that Microsoft released a PR notice stating that supply issues continued into February and even they expected the PS3 to sell better, but it's still quite noteworthy as an absolute fact. The PS3 also improved on last month's strong performance and more than doubled what it was selling a year ago. At the midpoint of 2007 the situation looked very bleak indeed for the PS3, but Sony has managed to turn things around with the system now performing quite respectably. These aren't market-dominating numbers (look to the Wii for those) and the PS3 almost certainly will not repeat the PS2's success, but compared to what might have been Sony should be more than satisfied. The only real negative is the strong performance of Devil May Cry 4 did not appear to move a large amount of hardware (looking at month-over-month sales). Otherwise this was a very good month for the PS3.

360: 254,600 (63,650) As I mentioned above, this number is not surprising at all, given that Microsoft warned us it was coming. It's a significant (although not huge) improvement over the January numbers, where supplies were even more constrained. Notably, given the supply issues present this year weren't there last year and sales still went up, demand for the 360 is definitely higher now than it was then. As long as the supply constraints are resolved in March MS should continue to see growth.

PSP: 243,100 (60,775) The PSP again sold quite well. It came in last for the month, but given the strong performance of the other systems that's not much of a problem. The biggest question with the PSP remains software sales, and unfortunately there is not enough data publicly available to judge them. However, it is safe to say that they likely remain poor, which brings up a number questions over how Sony will approach its successor, if they decide to create one.

Looking at the overall market, there really were no losers this month. All six systems performed quite well both on their own merits and in absolute numbers. Nintendo performed particularly strongly, selling over a million units of hardware between the DS and Wii, but all three companies have reason to be quite happy with these results. It's a strong contrast to last year, when there was far more market uncertainty, particularly regarding the PS3.

Moving to the software top 10, there are a few comments that can be made. Without more data we can't say anything about overall software performance on the platforms, since most titles sell outside of the top 10. Therefore this will be limited to individual games. First is the amazing performance of Call of Duty 4. It's now topped the charts for four straight months and has sold incredibly well. Despite a far lower level of hype and marketing, its performance puts it in the same vicinity as Halo 3. With this entry Call of Duty has made its position as one of gaming's top franchises. Devil May Cry 4 sold very well on both platforms but was proportionately far stronger on the PS3. Whether or not the larger number of top-selling titles on the 360 (4 titles in the top 10 vs. 1) split sales and was a factor in this is unknown, but at first glance it looks like Devil May Cry is still largely seen as a PlayStation franchise. Only the 360's massive lead in installed base allowed that version to sell better. Wii Play will maintain its position as long as Wii hardware continues to sell like ice water in hell. Guitar Hero 3 on Wii is again the top-selling version, with the PS2 release also making an appearance. Given Rock Band's second consecutive appearance in the top 10, it‘s appears likely that it's displaced Guitar Hero as the premier instrument game on the 360. The DS version of Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games made another appearance in the top 10 and actually sold more than last month. Given that the Summer Games are still months away expect very long legs on this one. Lost Odyssey had a great debut on the 360 and showed that JRPGs can perform well on the 360, helping to make up for Blue Dragon's subpar sales. Turok also had a decent opening.

Finally, I'll close by looking ahead to next month. The biggest game of the month will obviously be Super Smash Bros. Brawl, which is a shoe-in for the number 1 spot on the software charts and will help ensure that Wii hardware remains sold out for the foreseeable future. I also suspect that Nitnendo routed a significant amount of extra hardware to the US for the release. Neither the PS3 nor the 360 have any obvious major releases (Army of 2 might crack the top 10, but it doesn't seem like the kind of title that moves hardware), so I suspect that they'll hold steady, although the 360 might see a rise simply because supply shortages will continue to resolve. The DS will be huge just because it's the DS, but again there are no major software releases. The one other interesting software title is the pan-platform SEGA Superstar Tennis, which will be worth watching if only to see how it performs across the various platforms. Otherwise I think that's everything I have to say about this month's numbers.

Mar 19, 2008 - 5:53 am | 12 comments
Christopher Farmer