Wii Will Win War, Analyst Says

March 2, 2007

For the first time that I can remember, a researcher has come out and openly predicted a return to market dominance for Nintendo. Despite the Xbox 360’s year-long lead and Sony’s considerable edge in brand recognition, US market researcher IDC has forecasted a slight edge for Nintendo’s Wii, speculating that they’ll capture slightly more than a third of the worldwide marketshare.

“Nintendo is the only one of the three manufacturers working to grow its accessible market for its hardware and software by broadening its audience beyond the traditional market,” observed the company. “We believe concerted efforts to broaden the appeal of videogames beyond the traditional enthusiast base will deepen the industry’s penetration.”

While interesting, I wonder whether anybody has done any analysis on what the effects of an installed base full of casual gamers would entail. How would it affect the attach rate? It’s one thing for Nintendo, whose titles fly off shelves without so much as an afterthought. But will third party publishers fare as well?